A military invasion of the USA just plain isn’t going to happen.
Look, I get it, Red Dawn was a really fun movie. A bunch of really attractive young people got to run around and shoot all the commies they liked, and shout ‘WOLVERINES!!!!” a lot.
Then Charlie Sheen’s character died, which is of course always a good thing (except in Major League 1, where he was great as the Wild Thing) along with Patrick Swayze… but it turned out nobody puts Baby in a corner… oh wait, sorry, wrong movie… that helicopter finished of Jennifer Gray in this one if I recall correctly.
While not quite a Brat Pack movie, it still featured a bunch of great looking young adults shooting bad guys with guns, what’s not to love?
Well… honestly… the plot…
The idea of a military invasion of the continental USA is just stupid
It was stupid in 1984 when Red Dawn was released, and it’s (frankly) even dumber now.
Why?
Because the USA owns the world’s biggest can of whoop-ass and it isn’t even ballpark-close. Open up that giant can, and you see three components, air, land and ground.
I’ve gotta be honest, the reason I’m even writing this is because I see people constantly talking about this scenario as if it’s realistic and something that we need to be prepping for. If you stay with me all the way to the end, I’ll explain why I covered this in as much detail as I do.
Additionally, since I have no desire for this to turn into a multi-part article, I’m skipping Hawai’i and Alaska for the sake of space. I’ll come back to this later at the end as well.
As somebody who is a historian (I do, after all, have a doctorate in history… admittedly, I bought it from a diploma mill from an ad in the back of Rolling Stone magazine back in the early 1990’s… but hey, I do have one!), I can tell you with as much certainty as I know anything, you can relax your mind on this one point… nobody from China is going to be parachuting into your back yard tonight… unless, of course, you happen to live in China, in that case all bets are off.
Land, Sea & Air
There are exactly 3 ways for other countries to invade the United States, by land, sea & air. We can rule out tunneling (the whole “digging a hole all the way to China” isn’t actually a real thing), so we are left with those three.
So how do we stand on defending an invasion from those three avenues of attack? Let’s take a look at it:
Who has the worlds greatest military air forces… the USA.
Next, who has the worlds best ground forces? Well, that would be the USA.
Who has, by far, bar none… and it’s not even remotely close… the world’s most sea power? You guessed it, the USA.
Folks, we don’t do politics here at 3BY, but there’s no way around talking about the absolutely staggering amount of money we have spent on the military. The monitary figures are so vast, it’s hard to even talk about stuff with that many zeros on the end.
Here’s the thing: nobody else is spending that kind of money on their military in 2018 (when this is written), and nobody has been spending that kind of money on their military since the fall of the Soviet Union 25+ years ago.
We spend more on our military than the next 8 nations COMBINED. What do we get for all of that? Security from being invaded (at the very least).
Let’s look at military invasion one avenue of attack at the time
Let’s start with the easiest one, land.
The continental USA has borders with two countries, Canada & Mexico.
There is no scenario that I can even imagine that involves a land invasion of the USA by Canada. They don’t want us. Seriously, Canadians are doing just fine as they are, and the last thing they want to do is add 350 million loudmouthed, opinionated and highly armed Americans to their country.
Canada also has the same isolation advantages that the USA has, so they face only ONE threat of invasion, that of the USA. I ask you, knowing what you know about the political wills of these two country, which one has more to fear from an invasion? That’s right, Canada has a lot more to worry about from the prospect of us invading them than they ever would vice versa.
Then there’s Mexico.
Look, I mean no disrespect for the Mexican armed forces, but frankly if they initiated a military invasion of the USA their entire armed forces couldn’t beat just the New Mexico National Guard.
Here’s the thing though… part of Fort Bliss is in New Mexico. Know what that means? The bulk of the US First Armored Division is there. That’s 352 M1A2 Abrams main battle tanks plus all the fixings, artillery, infantry support, cav & army air asserts, etc. Oh yeah, I forgot, that’s not counting all of the other US forces and New Mexico National Guard units. Opps, my bad.
Mexico has no tanks at all. Not one. Let’s just stop this now and leave it here.
Not. Happening.
Military Invasion By Air
In a sense, this one’s a lot less believable than the USA being successfully invaded by Mexico or Canada.
Why?
Well, besides the fact that the USA is defended by a vast array of armed forces with air defenses, the bottom line is that the US is thousands of miles away from anybody that could potentially want to invade us.
Looking down the long list of people who might possibly want to invade the USA (at least if we put our “Red Dawn” hats on), the closest country is Russia, from Siberia.
Just The Facts, Mam!
Setting aside the fact that launching the invasion of the world’s most heavily armed continent from a place as remote as eastern Siberia is so far beyond idiotic as to defy belief, it’s still 4,700 miles from the nearest airport where it could conceivably be attempted (Vladivostok) to Seattle… and that route takes you directly over (and I do mean DIRECTLY over) Japan.
One might remember that we have a whole Navy full of Aegis missile ships sitting in Yokohama harbor, and dozens of Patriot missile batteries all over that country that would probably notice this massive Russian invasion force?
Of course, it wouldn’t happen because, frankly, no country in the world has that kind of airlift capacity anyway. It’s not just about lifting the planes, it’s not about the 10 hour flight to get to Seattle or some other extreme west coast location… it’s about the fuel it would take to do it. Russian cargo planes could make it, but there’s no way any fighters could without refueling multiple times.
Russia has 19 Il-76 tankers. That’s right, 19. The USA? How many tankers do we have active to support the wave after wave of fighters that would be finishing off whatever Russian planes that the Navy & Patriot batteries had let through? Up to 476, although with deployments and what not, we probably wouldn’t have more than 200 available.
Yes, this really is just that silly of an argument.
Military Invasion By Sea
Did I mention that Vladivostok (Russia’s ONLY port that is open year round) is 4,700 miles from Seattle?
It is, if you count airline miles that go right over the top of Japan.
If the Russian Navy wanted to take their one operational air craft carrier, all of their ships and escort every single surface ship owned by the nation across the Pacific from Vladivostok, they would end up taking about a 5,500 mile journey through constant submarine and air attacks from the eight to ten US supercarriers they would end up facing along the way, as well as yadda yadda yadda honestly I’m not even go on, it’s just too silly.
Not. Happening.
What About If They Use An EMP Attack First?
A foreign power using an EMP attack against the United States is a reasonable prepper concern. Somebody going nuts and starting to throw nukes around? Another reasonable prepper concern. Bioterror? Absolutely.
These are all things that could seriously mess up things for us here in the good ole USA.
Having said that, the problems would be EMP, nukes and bioterror, not an invasion. We are still 5,000 miles from anybody who might want to invade, and frankly we have assets enough to wipe any country that tries it from the face of the earth, assets that they can’t get to.
Additionally, our military hardware is (in various degrees) EMP hardened. A lot of stuff would still be affected, but the military as a whole would still be an effective combat force.
Boomers.
A significant percentage of the massive, destroy the world 60 times over USA nuclear arsenal is deep in the ocean at all times, invisible to all of our foes.
ONE Ohio class submarine could park off the coast of any continent in the world and end life on that continent as we know it.
We have 14 Ohio class submarines carrying ballistic missiles with multiple independent (MIRV) warheads., and generally 12 of them are at sea at all times. Each MIRV can obliterate 4 cities (assuming at that point in time we are still following the START treaty… if not, each MIRV can wipe out 14 cities).
In other words, if somebody big enough to invade us tried the EMP approach, we wouldn’t have an invasion, we would have a global thermonuclear war on our hands. That would be very, very ungood.
If You Have Stuck With Me This Long, Thank You
If you stop and think about something like the logistics of pulling off “Red Dawn” it becomes pretty obvious that it’s just a silly Hollywood story so we can watch a bunch of good looking kids shooting bad guys and shouting “WOLVERINES!!!!!!!” a lot.
I went on in as much detail as I have not really to debunk the idea of a mainland USA military invasion, but rather to show my thought processes on how I analyze how valid a prepping threat might be so I can prioritize it in my planning.
If we hear about a potential threat, instead of just repeating it to others or plastering meme’s about it on social media, I think it’s a better idea to say “hey, wait a minute… does that make any sense? Is that really a thing?”
In this case? At this point in time? No. Russia has a big military, but it’s designed to do one thing and one thing only… to keep THEM from being invaded again. You know, like the USA did in 1919.
The last people to invade the mainland USA (other than a few bandit raids on the Mexican borders) were the British during the war of 1812.
They burned Washington, DC.
Was that really a bad thing?
You forgot the Aleutian Islands in WW2. Over 500 Americans died getting it back plus many wounded. Very interesting article. Thanks
I didn’t forget Alaska, but I still agree with Salty’s position. Seriously, who wants Alaska enough to invite getting nuked over it? I love the place, but it wouldn’t give them much that Siberia doesn’t already have in abundance. Also, the Aleutians isn’t really what preppers are thinking of when they worry about getting invaded, is it?
Nah, I didn’t forget the Aleutians, I am just talking about mainland USA. I gotta be honest, if the SHTF the Aleutians are going to be a really, really bad place to live for so may reasons.
Boy O Boy Salty, all I can say is … I roger all …….. very well done
Your assuming that we have access to ALL our forces to repel enemies coming just from Mexico or Canada. What if we’re also fighting a 2 or 3 ocean war, tying up 90% or more of our military and we get another army hitting us through Mexico. An army made up of El Salvadorans, Hondurations, Venezuelians and led by foriegners from… lets say China, Iran, who knows? We have a lot of countries that would love to see us taken down more than a notch and the world situation is in such sad shape that that 2 or 3 ocean war I mentioned is a possibility. And don’t toos the 80 million gun owners at me either. Yes, a lot of them are vets and would fight, but they are, for the most part unorganized and definately under supplied. It would take a while to get supply lines set up and a central organization in place. Without either of those the 80 million, or would it be more like 1 or 2 million, gun owners would be ineffective. I know about the French resistance fighters in WW2, but they really didn’t stand alone either. They had covert support for the allies in the form of supplies air dropped in along with highly trained people like the British SOE teams. We’d probably have neither. So yes, an invasion of the US is possible and could well succeed if we allow ourselves to be draw into conflict far from our home shores.
Thank you for your reply.
Let me break down my response into bite sized chunks to address each point.
“Your assuming that we have access to ALL our forces to repel enemies coming just from Mexico or Canada. What if we’re also fighting a 2 or 3 ocean war, tying up 90% or more of our military and we get another army hitting us through Mexico. An army made up of El Salvadorans, Hondurans, Venezuelans and led by foreigners from… lets say China, Iran, who knows?”
Well, a two front ocean war requires a navy big enough to offer a challenge to the USA. There is just no getting around the fact that we are 3500-5000 away from them, whoever “they” are. Right now, the Russian navy is a shell of it’s former self and could not challenge the US navy on one ocean, let alone two. They could sink some ships with their submarines, but that’s about it.
The Russian navy has 179 aircraft, most of them long range patrol. They have ONE carrier, one battle cruiser at sea, three cruisers, 13 destroyers and 10 frigates, plus various smaller surface ships. They have 10 boomers (again, if those are in action the least of our worries are invasion), 7 cruise missile subs, and 16 attack subs. Only four of their subs are newer than 20 years old (three are boomers), and most of them are closer to 25+ years old or older.
The US has 11 carriers, 52 attack submarines, 14 boomers, four cruise missile subs, 22 cruisers, 66 destroyers and a whole lot more of every other kind of ship… plus 3,700 operational US Navy aircraft. Additionally, if the US is attacked NATO comes into play, and we have the full partnership of the UK Royal Navy (who are more than a match for the Russians by themselves). The idea of a two-ocean war is just a non-starter. Yes we can be engaged in wars on two continents, but again… invasion requires crossing the ponds, and we own the ponds.
“We have a lot of countries that would love to see us taken down more than a notch and the world situation is in such sad shape that that 2 or 3 ocean war I mentioned is a possibility. And don’t toos the 80 million gun owners at me either. Yes, a lot of them are vets and would fight, but they are, for the most part unorganized and definately under supplied. It would take a while to get supply lines set up and a central organization in place. Without either of those the 80 million, or would it be more like 1 or 2 million, gun owners would be ineffective. I know about the French resistance fighters in WW2, but they really didn’t stand alone either. They had covert support for the allies in the form of supplies air dropped in along with highly trained people like the British SOE teams. We’d probably have neither. So yes, an invasion of the US is possible and could well succeed if we allow ourselves to be draw into conflict far from our home shores.”
Here’s the thing, though… invasion forces have to come from somewhere. There’s no invasion force that’s going to be able to sail the Atlantic or the Pacific, so it would have to be by land. The ONLY land route into the US (Canada simply doesn’t count, because if you invade Canada you have invaded us… we wouldn’t stand for it) is via Mexico. To get from South America they would have to come up the Pan American Highway, cross a couple of bridges at the Panama Canal, and up through Mexico. Lines of communications and supply would be thousands of miles long with about a thousand “bomb this bridge and they are stuck” points. Besides, what is Venezuela going to send up against us, their 250 1970’s era T-72’s & Vietnam era AMX-30’s (think Iraq, desert storm, 1991 where we destroyed THOUSANDS of these with the loss of 1 heavily damaged M1A1 tank. One.
There are many things we need to concern ourselves with as preppers, armies sweeping up from South America isn’t one of them.
Good article, well presented. That leaves internal problems: natural disasters and social unrest. Plenty of triggers for that. I’d enjoy your perspective on some more realistic scenarios.
Thanks for your comment!
Hang in there, I have plans to offer some observations on scenarios that I think are much more realistic, like civil unrest, that one is certainly on the list because it’s something we’ve seen happening in the past.
I may have a bit of a different perspective than some because I have lived in Ferguson, Missouri, within half a mile from the center of where the riots took place and I have many friends who live there to this day. Not surprisingly, the story told in the national media was almost completely fabricated to meet agendas.
I will, however, make one thing clear, I won’t be getting into politics on this stuff, because we don’t do politics here at 3BY (with the exception that we are pro-gun). so that in it’s self will offer a different perspective than you generally see online.
Keep checking in, you will see this particular scenario examined in the near future 🙂
Well,…if the US has the most powerful force in the world, weapons, tech, etc..then we should be more concerned about our own govt owned people, mercs…so,..the enemy within as they say..and since we know that laser weapons, Direct energy weapons were used in California to kill overe 50,000 people, land grabbing Paradise, and other areas placing them under military control….I suppose you’re right- Red Dawn would never happen here. Our own will be our greatest enemy. Thanks. Oh, and we need to make sure they are not foreigners wearing our gear…ya know, because our own would not fire on civilians; but a stranger would not have that problem. Trojan horses can be something to tame not to mention identify. Do your own research: LINK FROM EXTERNAL SOURCE REMOVED from Pearl Harbor, thru 9/11 and now the Cali wildfires…well,…I hope we are all wrong about a lot of things.
Salty, the Aleutians were mentioned because you said we have not been invaded since the British. I did not say the Aleutians were great place to be.
To be fair, I did state the mainland United States… which excludes Alaska, Hawai’i and all American territories.
Not trying to be argumentative, I was just careful in my wording.
Salty, you did mention that . I stand corrected.
I completely disagree.
Why do you think the EMP weapons are being worked on so hard? Why do you think China is building up, for the first time ever, logistics support? How long did it take to move “the caravan”to the border?
Russia has used civilian aircraft before just as we did in desert storm.
You need to look harder and at the long term because they are.
Logistical support is one thing, invasion support is an entire different world of preparation, and they are NOT doing that.
We can just look at history, it took us two entire years to set up the Normandy invasion, we had to build the ships to do the landings, had to train the crews, it was an immense project that everybody knew we were doing… and the invasion wasn’t over 3,500 or 5,000 miles of open ocean, it was over 31 miles of one small body of water. It was unopposed by the German Navy.
Desert Storm? We had a LOT of the supplies pre-positioned (none of which China or Russia has) and from the start of the logistics of the operations took 6 months to put together, and we didn’t have to even cross contested waters, just drop the tanks we had sitting around on ships already in theater. The small amount of amphibious invasion was a decoy. There were no mountains to deal with, there was only open desert.
The idea of using civilian aircraft to airlift troops into a combat zone and expecting a single one to survive is… yeah, just not going to happen.
Let’s talk about China invading by air.
First, the nearest major city in China to the US that doesn’t fly directly over a place we have stacked full of Patriot missiles is Shanghai (airport code PVG) and the closest place on the US mainland they could hit is Los Angeles (LAX). Guess what, those airports are 6,480 nautical miles apart. The only commercial aircraft that can make that hop with a combat loadout that are operated out of China are the 747, 777, 787, and A350. The national carrier and by far biggest airline in China is Air China has, for example, five A350’s, nine non-vip 747’s, 28 777’s and 14 787’s.
Total invasion force capacity, assuming the US Air Force and US Navy don’t bother shooting them all down on their 12-hour flight over here, is (I counted up the seats on everything Air China has with the range enough to get here) 10,429 souls. That’s just them and their personal weapons, that’s not any tanks, trucks, big guns of any kind, etc.
Additionally, those planes can’t just land anywhere, they need really big, strong runways to land on… then you have to deplane the troops, so you need a fully secured area to get them off the planes.
The 767 and pretty much every airbus other than the A350 simply would run out of gas on the way. It’s a BIG ocean.
1) You can’t jump troops out of a modern airliner, the doors can’t be opened in flight. This isn’t like the old 727’s and their back staircase, they don’t work that way.
2) 10,429 troops vs the entire United States military (again, EMP would hurt us civilians but most military equipment would survive)… yeah, I don’t think so.
3) China has more civilian airlift capacity than Russia.
Look, at this point I think I’m getting beyond reasonable discussion on the orders of magnitude of unlikeliness Red Dawn is in America, so I’m going to say thanks for reading and I hope you enjoy 3BY in the future.
Thanks again,
Salty
i read a lot lol . There are scenarios and then there are scenarios.
some are plausible / some are not.
Those that are in a position of power have a stated goal of a one world government. These same individuals have stated USA is an impediment to their cause due to freedom loving Americans having firearms. Quite a lot of firearms actually.
What would be the circumstances that Americans willingly give up their firearms ? Food? Medicine? Examine your tolerance for whatever pain can be brought to bear that can make you compromise your beliefs . Then prepare accordingly .
I think is was Kissinger that stated we would welcome UN control provided the right catalyst was used . Was an interesting read . I take proactive steps to negate their influence . Under my circumstances ,I cant prep enough . Period.
Although I try .
So ,as a mental exercise ,define what you will and will not do to protect you and yours ! Fix THOSE gaps and you will be ok I think . Just a cook lol be well
I remember when “Red Dawn” first came out, at the height of the Cold War. Yes, it fueled a lot of fantasies, but even then, I understood the impossibility of a foreign invader actually pulling it off. My concern has always been more about some domestic situation causing a social – economic disaster. That is our greatest threat, most likely to be caused by modern left-wing crackpots who want to abolish the Constitution and Bill of Rights and install a government reminiscent of the old Soviet Union, thus provoking an armed revolt among the small percentage of us who still believe in basic human rights and personal freedom.