Getting necessary vaccinations saves lives. That point is not much disputed — and it shouldn’t be, given the evidence. Which vaccinations are necessary? That point is much more up for debate. I’m not going to tell you what to do. 1) I’m not a physician, and 2) Even if I were, it’d still be your decision to make. The point of this post is to bring up some aspects of the debate that are often overlooked, but of special interest to preppers.
Here’s what I meant about necessary vaccinations saving lives. More than 3,000 polio deaths in 1952, before the vaccine.
How are vaccines a prepping issue?
For one, epidemic disease is one of the things for which most of us prep. Vaccinations can’t protect us from all epidemics, but can protect us from some.
The other issue is timing. Prepping is, in part, having necessary things acquired before they become necessary. This is the issue that seems most relevant today.
We talk about it more in the following podcast.
An example: A measles epidemic in 2019
As I write this, there are three measles outbreaks occurring in the U.S. One of them, centered in the Pacific Northwest, has collected enough cases (more than fifty) that it’s starting to be called an epidemic. It’s also spreading: A case of the Pacific Northwest strain showed up in Missouri this week.
In response, the request for vaccinations for measles in the most affected county has risen by 500% over last year. (1)
Herd immunity and vaccinations
The county with the outbreak only had a 75% coverage of measles vaccination among school age children. Many people there were clearly depending on herd immunity to protect their children. ‘Hey, if enough other kids were vaccinated, the disease wouldn’t be in the community! My kids would be safe from the disease and whatever risks they saw in the vaccinations!’
That approach works until it becomes moderately popular. Then it fails spectacularly. The tipping point for herd immunity varies with the ease of transmission of the disease. For many diseases, it hovers around 85%. As long as 85% of the population is vaccinated, the disease can’t move efficiently through the ‘herd’. When the vaccinated percentage is lower than that, everyone is likely to be exposed. Only the vaccinated retain any real protection.
So long as most of your herd is protected from a disease, so are you. But if they slack off…
So there’s one prepper consideration: For the populations you expect to reside in, how many people have vaccinations for the diseases that concern you?
Vaccination and lag times
The people up in Washington getting vaccinated now have essentially no protection if exposed for the next three days. That’s about as good as you can get with any normal (active) vaccination. Some vaccinations don’t provide a high level of protection unless you have a booster or two in you. That lengthens the lag time between vaccination and effect.
Prepper consideration two: What’s the lag time between taking the vaccination and it becoming effective?
Incubation times
Another timing consideration is incubation times. Many infections can be transmitted while the carrier still feels well, or while a more serious infection just seems to be a cold or a mild cough. Long incubation times ease the spread of infection. Lots of exposures occur before it becomes evident that someone is spreading it. People exposed to Ebola, for example, aren’t considered clear of infection until they’ve gone three weeks past exposure symptom-free.
The more the clock ticks between exposure and obvious illness, the more important early vaccination becomes.
Early vaccinations are more important in diseases with long incubations. You’re unsure that your community is as disease-free as it looks.
Vaccine supplies
While you’re at it, you might consider if the vaccine is likely to be on hand in enough quantity when you want it, should you go with the ‘wait until it seems necessary’ approach. I recall in 2004 there was a particularly nasty flu strain going around. It was so bad more people than usual wanted it. Most of them couldn’t get any. I called around several places to be told they couldn’t help despite my real need. Fortunately, my oncologist Knew a Guy and fixed me up.
Where do you live?
One more risk factor plays into these considerations: Where you live. Epidemics sprout first in the big cities that are major airline hubs. Epidemics usually take a while to get out to the hinterlands. (And rural communities exclude infections more successfully.)
If you live back here, you’ll probably get a Lot of warning before an epidemic reaches you. If you live in a city? Not so much.
1) Aleccia, J. 2019. https://abcnews.go.com/Health/anti-vaxxers-now-seek-measles-vaccine-outbreak/story?id=60919181