Global Warming!
I tend to prep for Low Probability Events and one that I think has a really low probability is global warming. 😊 In order to understand the risk and how to prepare for it, one needs to understand where this theory came from, what we can do about it, and how to prepare for it if efforts to avert it fail.
To be clear, I am talking about man-made global warming, not naturally occurring climate change. Over the history of the earth, we have gone through ice ages and warm periods a number of times without the intervention of man, so that’s a different topic.
Where Did The Idea Of Global Warming Come From?
Back in the early days of the environmental movement there were some real problems. There were entire rivers that were devoid of fish because of pollution, smog in some cities that you could see, not to mention smell, toxic waste sites like Love Canal, and so on.
In the middle of all the hoopla, some scientists decided to try to figure out what would happen if we kept generating air pollution and carbon dioxide, so they tried to figure out how much we were generating, and then built some computer-based models to see what might happen. After all we use weather models and that works so well doesn’t it? 😊 The results were sort of scary and the whole Global Warming movement was born.
Now there is nothing wrong with a computer modeling exercise per se, but when you take the results as gospel, without testing whether the model’s predictions will be accurate over time, you might be an, . . . As it turns out, even with tweaking the historical data used in the models, climate models don’t seem to work too well. For instance, if you believed the early models, the polar ice caps would have melted by now. Just ask Al Gore how well his predictions are turning out. ☹
I like bears! 😊
When the models were predicting increasing temperatures, and the temperatures seemed to stop rising, the global warming believers did the smart thing. They changed the models, produced the movie “The Day After Tomorrow”, and changed the term from “global warming” to “climate change”. They also started calling the folks who don’t believe in the absolute ability of man to predict global warming, or climate change, or whatever, with computer models “deniers”, in order to quell debate over whether the models worked. Enough people believed this nonsense to become a force within political parties in a number of developed countries.
What to Prepare For
Fortunately, what we actually need to prepare for is not global warming, but plain old-fashioned weather. We need to prepare for Low Probability weather events. We need to prepare for hurricanes, tornadoes, blizzards, heat waves, and other nasty weather.
I’ve even written a couple posts here about hurricanes and blizzards. Weather is real, whether global warming is real or not. Sometimes weather hits extremes, and sometimes weather is dangerous to the survival of those of us who are in the way.
If you’re caught in a hurricane, does it matter whether it is naturally occurring or the result of climate change?
Put simply, we need to prepare for extremes in precipitation, wind, and temperature that are dangerous. We also need to prepare for weather events that are longer in duration than three days. As we have seen in Puerto Rico, utilities can fail for extended periods of time due to something as simple as a hurricane.
We have even had weather changes due to volcanos going off. In 1815 Mount Tambora, a volcano in the Pacific, exploded and threw so much ash into the upper atmosphere that there was snow in New England and northern Europe in the summer of 1816. Man hasn’t managed to put that much dust in the air, . . . yet. 😊
Preparation includes appropriate clothing and shelter, as well as backup plans in case your home (shelter) is destroyed.
Conclusion
If you want to believe that computer models can accurately predict the climate decades from now, while predicting the weather a few days in advance remains challenging, be my guest. In the meantime, while waiting for the climate to get warmer, or colder, or somehow different, I suggest prepping for extreme weather events, e.g. hurricanes, tornadoes, blizzards, and other unpleasant weather. In fact, I would say these events are what you should prep for first, as they are almost certain to happen somewhere, and if they appear at your location, you will have to deal with them.
When you have completed that preparation, consider an ark. 😊
Science politicized makes the whole topic absurdly controversial, and as you all well know, I have zero interest in politicizing anything.
Having said that, your bottom line is dead-on target.
I agree on with your conclusion that there is no need whatever to prep for global warming (GW) because it’s nothing that can be prepped for.
Weather? Yes.
Climate? No.
We will be long dead before the ongoing climate change hits us (man made or not).
There IS climate change afoot, that’s not deniable… but there has ALWAYS been climate change, hence the ice ages, etc. The argument about the causes, from a prepping point of view, are beside the point IMHO.
As far as prepping goes, GW is totally a non-issue, because whether hurricanes, ice storms, coastal flooding, drought or whatever are on the increase or decrease, we have to deal with the WEATHER and not the CLIMATE.
This weekend we drove through SE South Dakota, and we found many, many farm fields where glacial erratics were piled up along the side. Those are the big round rocks dropped by glaciers as the recede. There is no (reasonable) debate that the last ice age that covered South Dakota was “man made”, but when it comes to the animals that were living there, the species had to adapt or die as the climate changed… but that took thousands of years, and actual members of the species (individual saber-tooth tigers, for example) didn’t live long enough to notice the overall climate change.
Interesting stuff.
PS: We don’t talk about politics here at 3BY, replies containing political comments will not be approved. So why did we allow the Al Gore information? He wrote a book that made predictions, named dates, and those dates have past and his predictions were dead wrong. That’s not political, it’s simply fact.
Actually, Al Gore hasn’t been much of a political figure since the 2000 election. I included him because he is the single best known figure in the whole controversy, and he has been so incredibly wrong it is downright funny. 🙂
I am pleased you agree with the main point, i.e. Prep for extreme weather.
I would even say not to depend on history too much as a guide when prepping for extreme weather. The variability has increased, and along with it the number and severity of extreme events. Prepping for worse than has yet been observed in the area has become reasonable.
Exactly, Houston is a prime example with 3 “500-year” floods in the last 3 years.
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/politics/houston/article/NOAA-study-could-redefine-100-year-storm-for-12387348.php
Call it what you will, but the weather is getting weirder and more severe, so be ready for extremes on both ends – cold and hot.
I read an article some time back, so I can’t provide a link or citation, that claimed we had a period of relatively benign weather during the last half of the 20th century and that what we are experiencing lately is just a return to normal.
We’ve been having more extreme weather here in SWMO over the last 10 years, no idea what is the cause if anything.
But I don’t have to look any farther than Joplin to see what my main prep is.
I hear that. Spice and I drove through Joplin about 4 months after the twister, the amount of damage was absolutely staggering. Unbelievable, a whole section of town was just gone.
In case people don’t know what we are talking about, here’s a link to the story.
Spice is in SWMO right now visiting family…
UPDATE: One of the more recent points of evidence for global warming has been melting of the ice cap in Antarctica. However, a volcano that has been heating up has recently been discovered under the ice. The models now need to be reworked to take the volcano into account.
Ice is disappearing more rapidly than had been predicted at both poles though; and at far distant regions at those poles. Just saying.
Lots of changes are occurring throughout the world all the time, but we have at least two issues with computer models for predictive purposes: 1) Do we have the necessary data on which to base a model. I would suggest that if we are missing things the size of volcanos the answer is No. 2) Does the model actually work and accurately predict what will occur over time. Experience to date would suggest not yet. Weather events still require preparation because those will happen.