Thoughts On Ammunition Shortage

Plans for Ammunition When “Normal” Returns

I wrote a previous post on ammunition, before the current shortage, that described my method for figuring out how much ammunition to inventory.  Given the current shortage, it is safe to say that very few people have enough, or are likely to be able to find enough soon, unless it is already in their basement.

In 2012 when Barack Obama won his second term, I predicted there would be problems in the firearms industry so I ordered a bunch of ammunition.  Six weeks later, the Sandy Hook mass shooting occurred, making me some sort of “future predictor” for a day.  Most of what I ordered was delivered, so I was in pretty good shape through the drought of 2013.

I was short on .22LR, which was unfortunate, but I corrected that when supplies returned to normal.  We had another shortage during the 2016 election, where Hillary Clinton was widely predicted to be elected.  During the early part of the Trump administration supplies were good, but I did not stock up further, because I was planning on moving in 2019 and ammunition is heavy.  ☹  As we went into 2020, I was in okay shape, not great but not suffering, for all my standard calibers.

Who Knew?

I did not anticipate that 2020 would be as difficult as it has been, so I guess my ability to predict was exhausted in 2013.  ☹  As a result, I now find myself looking at the national ammunition shortage and contemplating what I got right and what I got wrong.  I also need to figure out what to do next.

Now I see two problems at the moment.  The first is that ammunition is so expensive, that I hesitate to go to the range with anything larger than a .22.  Just because I have some doesn’t mean I wish to exhaust that supply in the current environment.  I also drew down my inventory prior to my move from PRNJ to SC, because ammunition is difficult to move, but the shortage hit before I could restock.  With no plans to move again, I need to build a larger inventory than I went into the current downturn with.

Next, I did not accumulate anything outside the core calibers that I had planned on at that time, e.g. 9mm, 5.56, etc.  I now find I would like to try a few things, e.g. 6.5 Grendel, or .300 Blackout.  Do I have any of either of those calibers?   NO!  ☹  As a result, I find myself wanting a small stash for calibers that I don’t see as core, but would just like to try out or have on hand for other members of my MAG who don’t know they are in my MAG.  😊

The New Calibers

So how much is a small stash?  How about a few boxes of whatever calibers make sense at the time?  If I were to accumulate 100 or 200 rounds of calibers that various friends and family have weapons for, I could help them out in a SHTF pinch.  Alternatively, in a situation that was simply an ammunition supply shortage, like now, that ammo could be used to try out new firearms or traded to people with a need for those calibers.  If I buy when the market is flush, it shouldn’t cost too much.

What calibers do I want to consider?  There are some I am just interested in, but beyond that I think it makes sense to have a small supply of weird rounds that folks in my extended MAG, but don’t know they are in an extended MAG, may need.

What calibers do I need?

Amongst my various extended family members, I know there are firearms in .22 Mag, .300 AAC, 6.5 Creedmoor, and 6.5 Swiss and probably others.  I don’t own firearms for any of these calibers, but purchasing a couple boxes of each, in normal times, would be okay.  I could fill an ammo can or two with miscellaneous ammo, toss in a few exotic shotgun rounds, and top it off with stuff I would like to try.

Next, after avoiding buying into the panic, I will need to replenish ammo I used during 2020, i.e. my core calibers.  That would include, .22LR, 9mm, 40cal, 45cal, 5.56, and .308.

Magazines

I am in good shape for magazines for my current core calibers, but I may wish to pick up a couple mags for those new oddball calibers.  Interestingly, magazines are generally available right now, despite the general shortage in the firearms market.  Some calibers do not need unusual magazines, but others do.  I could perhaps pick up a few 6.5 Grendel magazines now, despite the fact that I am unlikely to buy a 6.5 Grendel firearm during the current shortage.  I just like what I have read about the caliber and would like to try it out.  Tucking away a few magazines would position me for when firearms and ammo are available in that caliber.

In addition, with magazine restrictions being discussed, I could either buy standard capacity magazines, while they are available and hope they are grandfathered, or begin accumulating low capacity magazines, so I am ready to go if restrictions are put in place.  I could pick calibers now, buy a few magazines, and then when ammunition and firearms become available, complete my purchases and finally add a new caliber to the mix.

Conclusion – Ammunition

Right now, is a good time to figure out how you want to prepare during the next cycle.  What did you do right to get ready for this cycle?  What is coming up short?  What is okay but uncomfortably tight?  It is time to figure it out and be ready for when prices are affordable again.

BONUS!

Salty, independently, did a podcast about the ammunition shortages… do his thoughts compare to Paranoid Prepper? Listen and find out!