What do people who live in the desert find to talk about with strangers? Here in the Midwest, small talk can always start with the weather. It’s like a pet goat; always doing something unexpected — and usually troublesome. That’s a prepping problem, because it’s way easier to be prepared for what you expect.
Salty and I talk it over in this podcast:
It’s a beautiful sky … but what does it Mean?
Why can’t we just read the forecast to know what weather to expect?
There’s weather forecasts everywhere. Salty has one favored site; I use another. They often disagree by small matters, such as ‘dusting’ or ‘six inches’ of snow. Why?
Weather forecasts don’t disagree because the different forecasters are working with different data. Every forecaster in the U.S. is starting with the free (or rather, your tax dollars at work) data they get from the government’s impressive set of weather satellites.
So why are forecasts so different? Ok, there are some differences in models. The forecasters occasionally admit, though, that’s not the main reason. Everyone who’s publishing a forecast has an audience in mind, and many of them have an economic incentive to make that audience happy. Therein lies the problem.
What makes you madder: Being told there’s a small chance of rain then getting your event rained out, or being told it will probably rain but then the day’s pretty nice? Most people don’t get mad when the weather’s better than the most probable forecast, but they do get mad when it’s worse. Since we (as a species) have a negative bias, we also remember the unexpected bad weather more potently. So, rather than having their houses egged by angry wet picnickers, most forecasters overstate probabilities of precipitation.
How to avoid the weather forecast bias
To get the a better professional forecast then, you have to seek out the less biased sites. The most commercial sites show the most ‘consumer-pleasing’ bias.
And how about this: Learn to read the data your own self. The maps and statistics are not only out there, there out there in abundance and are free. I once took a MOOC (free online class) on reading weather maps; it was fun as well as being useful. (And I can now tell you more about weather patterns in England than most other Missourians, since the course was offered by the University of Leeds in the UK. I expect that to be handy any day now…)
Maps like this are freely available and hold a wealth of information once you learn to read them.
In the longer term, getting into the habit of looking at the maps instead of just reading someone else’s forecast gives you a better feel for how weather patterns flow and move. It’s easier to interpret what, say, a wind from the northeast might mean (Trouble, here in Missouri).
Weather forecasting without the big data
While the forecasters still miss sometimes, I gotta admit they get it right a lot more often than they did when I was a kid. The data from that network of satellites and reporting stations allows a much clearer picture of events, and the computer modeling has made leaps and bounds too. (The computers they used when I was a kid had less ‘brains’ than most people’s phones do today.) But what if that data becomes unavailable?
That’s where weather spotting experience comes in handy. My old farmer neighbor nailed the forecast most days just by paying attention to sky and wind. Now’s a great time to develop your own weather eye. Correlate forecasts and maps to what the sky looks like and the wind feels like, and what weather follows. Look for the patterns.
Weather spotting classes provide a fast-forward
The National Weather Service runs a storm spotter training program for whoever is interested, Skywatch. Other free training’s out there if you don’t like that option. The point is that people will help you learn how to interpret what you see. Why not stand on the shoulders of those who’ve come before?
Whether your phone weather app is working or not, you may need to have an idea of what’s coming. Not only can it protect you in emergencies … it might Save the Picnic!
Seurat didn’t have a phone app to check before heading out to paint his picnickers. He did ok.