PrepperNomics 107:  Prepping for Shortages

PrepperNomics 107:  Prepping for Shortages

Those of us who are firearms enthusiasts are used to the periodic shortages that develop when it looks like gun laws might change.  Many of us are also familiar with empty grocery shelves, at least of milk and bread, during hurricanes and other disasters, assuming at least a weather forecast worth of warning.  A few older preppers may remember gasoline shortages in the 1970s.  Suffice it to say that shortages are a class of SHTF, even when nothing else goes wrong.

Unfortunately, demand for products can swing very fast.  Changes in supply are often reactions to demand changes that have already occurred.  Businesses are not going to produce products that are not needed “just in case”.  Doing so is a fast way to go out of business.  Depending on the product, when demand does move, it can take some time for production to adjust, particularly if additional production capacity needs to be created.  Think of the time to build a new factory.

The Toilet Paper Wars

Normally toilet paper (TP) is readily available in any grocery store in the US.  People do not routinely have a problem with supply as it does not go bad, like a gallon of milk, and resupply is a trip to the grocery store.  It is also bulky, which interferes with keeping too much on hand.

Unfortunately, the coronavirus craziness has made large numbers of people aware that they may need to self-quarantine for a minimum of two weeks, and perhaps longer.  The fact that TP is pretty much a standing joke among preppers has helped insure that even the most out of touch non-prepper is aware that he needs it in the event of a quarantine of any length.  The result, is everyone in America going to the grocery store to buy one month’s worth of the three-day supply that groceries stock.  Perhaps pick up a gallon of milk while at it.  😊

The result is empty TP shelves nationwide.  The interesting thing is once everyone is stocked up, the panic will be over.  There is no real permanent increase in demand.  People are simply trying to have a supply in their homes in case they are quarantined.  Once that is achieved, demand will drop back to what it was before.  If you have a bit of supply, it should be back in stores soon.

Other Shortages

Will some other unexpected shortage occur?  In this day and age of “Just in Time” inventories, and global supply chains, the answer is undoubtably yes.  I don’t have any inside scoop on what the next shortage will be, but the TP problem is a warning that almost any widely used product can experience a short-term swing in demand, resulting in a shortage until producers and the supply chain catch up.

Just as a wild guess, I’ll go out on a limb and predict K-Cups will go into shortage.  If that happens, it may start a run on other forms of coffee.  Some of you are now wondering if I really believe that, or I am just testing to see if I can actually set off a panic buy!  😊

What to Do?

As preppers, most of you already have some inventory of critical products.  These supplies are intended to carry you through various emergencies.  Generally, shortages are expected with some underlying crisis, like the current pandemic.  However, a shortage can occur without an underlying problem and is simply a type of emergency to be dealt with.  For instance, no one expected that post-Sandy Hook the widely anticipated new laws and regulations would cause a shortage of .22LR, but that caliber went into a longer drought than anything else.  There were no new federal laws.

The result is that as preppers, we need to build our own inventories of whatever we think are critical supplies.  Global supply chains are not going to keep inventory for us.  We each need to figure out what are critical supplies for our families and MAGs, and stock those items.  If the supply is abruptly cut off will you have enough of each product you use regularly to last through the shortage, until supplies resume?

You may have a different list of critical products than I do.  Each of us needs to figure out what products we depend on, and stock up enough to last through a disaster, or just a shortage caused by panic buying.  The amount of supply you need should be at least enough for whatever emergencies you are prepping for, but might be more for specific products.

My Situation

I’ve stated before that I am prepping for my MAG for up to a year.  That’s quite a supply of most products, but after 2012, it took about two years for .22LR to be readily available and about 3 years before my favorite brand was both available and reasonably priced. As a result, my goal is to have a one year supply of most products, and a three year supply of my favorit e .22LR brand.

Since I have just moved and drawn down inventories of many supplies, I need to refill those, and the Pandemic is inconveniently timed, but I am in far better shape than a non-prepper.

Prepping for Shortages – Conclusion

Each of us should consider what inventories we need and stock up accordingly.  Whether we have a SHTF moment, or the people at large just have a swing in demand, we’ll be ready for whatever happens.  Figure out what you need and stock up when it is readily available.