Why does it feel “surreal” or “hard to believe” when Stuff Hits The Fan (SHTF), and is it a big problem that it does? Yes, it IS a big problem, a VERY big problem, one that can cost you your life.
As I write this, we are in the early days of the Covid-19 infection. Some states in the US have been taking social distancing seriously for about a week, while others have been actively welcoming hordes of spring breakers to their beaches plus other vacationers.
In the last two weeks, the cruise ship lines have shut down, airlines have cut back flights, major sports teams suspended their season, and several states have issued “shelter in place” directives.
Many stores have empty shelves. There’s been a run on guns and ammunition. The national guard has been called out in several states. Schools have closed for the year, and all but the most “essential” government services are halted.
The stock market has lost 1/3 of it’s value, banks are closed to walk in customers, and “stay back six feet” has replaced the handshake.
With all of that, many people steadfastly argue that the Stuff has not yet Hit The Fan.
Why?
Normalcy Bias
In part, our old friend normalcy bias paying us a visit. Normalcy bias is a very common and very dangerous belief that many people hold when they are involved or facing a disaster situation or a survival situation.
Basically, it makes people underestimate the risks and the likelihood of bad things happening to them in a disaster, and that “everything will get back to normal shortly”.
This belief that they are safe (when in fact they are obviously facing danger) may keep people from either preparing for the disaster in the first place, or reacting quickly when disaster is upon them.
I’m seeing a lot of this in the people I talk to. “If only ‘they’ would open things back up so we could go back to work/school/church/whatever, everything would be fine.”
The claims continue even as the contamination and death tolls rise both exponentially, and right down the contamination curve that was predicted.
In the process, the damage to the economy and to the value of the fiat currency grows exponentially as well.
This may not be the S hitting Hitting The Fan for everybody, but it is for a lot of people.
So, Salty, Who Cares If The SHTF Doesn’t Feel Like The SHTF?
I care, and I think you should care as well.
The faster we recognize that the poop is smacking the rotary oscillator the better off we are, because recognizing that we are in a SHTF situation should start triggering our plans.
We should be isolating. We should be double checking our critical preps. We should put an emphasis on security, and we should be encouraging our loved ones to follow us.
COVID-19: No Tin Foil Hat Required To Recognize This Crisis
One silver lining about this crisis is that it’s out there, in front of the public, unlike a lot of things that we prep for. We may have to explain to the public what an EMP is or one of the many other events we prep for.
Everybody knows that pandemics happen… even though, unfortunately, we now know that even in this day and age, people in high places will deny what’s patently obvious to any independent observer. If it’s a “hoax” then it’s a darned deadly one.
That people were denying it so late is what got Italy in so much trouble, and what has cost them thousands upon thousands of dead.
There Will Be Lessons Learned
The wise will learn lessons from this experience, but most people won’t. I guess the only thing I can say about that is “be one of the wise, follow everything closely, and learn”.
That will help you the next time the SHTF and it doesn’t feel like it is… because unless COVID-19 kills you, the S will HTF again and again. That’s what it does.