Preppers prepare for hard times; but there’s a glitch. We want to be prepared for the next disaster … so we prep to be ready for the last disaster.
An example of preparing for the last disaster
In 1877, the Firth (Bay) of Tay bridge was the longest in the world. It looked like this:
In 1877, the Firth of Tay bridge was the longest in the world.
In 1889, on the very same rail line, the Firth of Forth bridge opened. It looks like this:
The Firth of Forth bridge was built by the same rail company on the same line, just about twenty years later.
Wow, that Firth of Forth bridge is massive. Looks like it would carry 100x the weight of that Firth of Tay bridge. Cost a fortune to build too. What happened?
In 1879, this had happened:
During a storm in 1879, the Firth of Tay bridge collapsed, dumping a train into the firth and killing all its occupants.
So what’s the point? First bridge wasn’t robust enough, so they built the next one more robust. Makes sense, right?
Sort of. But they not only made the next bridge more robust, they made it several times more robust than it needed to be. And they changed to a completely different design (cantilevered) for the new one. Then the next time a big cantilevered bridge collapsed, everyone quit building cantilevered bridges for decades … despite the general soundness of the design.
They were preparing for last big disaster. Whatever that was. They relied too much on the problems of the past while not thinking enough about the new risks posed bytheir changes.
When it’s good to prep for the last disaster
Learning from the past is hugely important; so I’d never say we shouldn’t look at past experiences for direction. What I am saying is that we have to be careful of what lessons we learn.
When we have reasons to think that new problems will be similar to old problems, prepping for the last disaster is a good way to prep for the next one. The ice storms of today take down power lines just like the ice storms when I was a kid (thankfully not as often). Driving across a flooded road has never been a good idea before and will still be a lousy idea the next time you see water in your path.
There are some universals, too. I can’t think of a single disaster, past or present, where having a chronic disease or a rotten tooth would be no disadvantage. Any time you might have to be more active, being fit enough to do what you need to do while avoiding injury is going to pay off.
When prepping for the last disaster doesn’t serve
But maybe the next disaster doesn’t look just like any of the old ones. Since the U.S. became highly dependent on electronic financial transfers, we’ve never had that system crash. But it could. Are we prepared for that? Is your stash of cash stocked? Are backups of your financial information safely stored away?
I’ve been guilty of this myself. When considering handling epidemics, I’ve been basing my thinking mostly on past patterns, such as historical flu epidemics. That’s not Awful, as those are still (in my opinion) the most likely suspects for a disease disaster. But let’s be honest: Genetic engineering is a lot easier than it was ten years ago … and therefore the risk of a terror attack involving a new bug is rising in probability every year.
Having rethought the new ease of ‘designer germs’, I’m building in a safety margin to my mental calculations. Germs may spread easier, resist treatment more effectively, or present with different signs and symptoms than expected.
Prepping for the last disaster may lead you to overlook new tools
Thinking about “How would I have handled that situation” works on your best prepping tool — your own brain. I heartily recommend it.
But reprhase it just a bit: “How would I handle that if it happened today?” It’s been nearly twenty years since Salty and I made sure we had a good quality first aid kit in the house. While we thought to refresh the perishables (tape, drugs) from time to time, it took me surprisingly long to notice that we hadn’t added some wonderful new tools. Now our kits have Quik-Clot and SAM splints.
Solar chargers and newer, longer-lasting battery packs reduce impacts of power outages. Epinephrine inhalers are once again available over the counter. AEDs save lives during heart attacks. GPS navigation aids invite far less error than compass and map — so long as they work. Don’t ditch the map, but maybe add the GPS system. Even simple advances like the development of excellent composting toilet systems seriously improve our preps.
The last word
Prep for the last disaster, absolutely… when that’s appropriate. But don’t take away the wrong lessons from history, and remember to think about what’s changing too.