In one sense, pandemic responses are easy to figure out: Don’t come in contact with infected people. In another sense, it can be very difficult. Critical information is hard to come by: How bad is it? What kinds of contacts are important? When is it time to get out of Dodge?
How do you get reliable information during a pandemic?
Sometimes the information is not available. Often it’s shockingly bad. My eyes were recently opened to just how bad it can be when I read a book by Ali S. Khan. Dr. Khan is a former Office of Public Health Preparedness and Response at the Centers for Disease Control (CDC). As you can see from the title of his book (1). Dr. Khan sees pandemic disease as the greatest danger facing humanity. And that’s not just blowing smoke to improve funding, because 1) he’s retired, and 2) he’s not shy about pointing out in the flaws of the CDC and national responses to past challenges.
So what sorts of problems are there with getting information during a pandemic?
The Don’t Cause a Panic strategy
This one will come as no surprise. During emergencies, some officials will always prioritize ‘not causing a panic’. Often that means downplaying the seriousness of the situation. Case in point: During the SARS epidemic of 2002, Dr. Khan was consulting with the Chinese public health people. After being there three days, he called his wife back in the U.S. and told her to immediately stock up with three months of food and water.
Was that the kind of pandemic information the general public was getting from our national health people? O Heck no. They were telling us there was nothing to worry about, and that everything was neatly contained. Didn’t mention the whole “… but if it gets out, this could get Really Ugly” part.
The Never Waste a Good Disaster problem
You can always trust some opportunistic jerks (some of whom are government affiliated) to twist any story to fit their agenda. Better yet if it’s a nicely dramatic, and preferably fear-inducing, story. When true information gets mangled in the process, well, so be it.
Case in point: In 2001, a lowlife who had a patent on an anthrax vaccine mailed around some anthrax-containing letters. (It was probably that guy anyway; he apparently committed suicide but the signs, including the specific strain of anthrax used, all point that way.) The goal seems to have been to increase sales of his vaccine.
At any rate, some lowlife sent anthrax-containing letters. Threatening notes found in some letters referenced 9-11. O my! It must be another terrorism attack by Al-Qaeda!
Except it almost certainly wasn’t. The most telling evidence was provided by the strain of anthrax itself. Only high-level containment facilities in the U.S. grew that variety. Could a Middle East terrorist potentially get some of that? Well yes, but that would be a ridiculously convoluted and difficult way to get some anthrax. There are lots of strains of that bacterium that would have done the trick, and many of them are much easier to get your hands on. There’s lots of other evidence as well, so it was pretty evident pretty early that it was actually a case of domestic terrorism.
Too bad for the sake of honest information that the ‘Middle East Terrorists!’ story suited their aims better. They just pretty much ignored what the CDC investigators were telling them and carried on with the original story.
The Clueless Problem
Many preppers know firearms. So ‘fess up, good preppers: How many of you have growled in frustration when some reporter talks about ammo ‘clips’ for the ‘assault weapons’ they want to see banned? It’s straight-up ignorance.
Pro tip from a biologist: Most people are similarly clueless about pandemics and medical information. Not that this detail stops them from publishing, of course…
That same anthrax terrorism event provides an example. The press kept saying the bacteria had been “weaponized”. What that means in a biological sense is that the strain had been intentionally altered to make it easier to spread or harder to defend (usually by adding antibiotic resistance). The CDC soon figured out that wasn’t true in this case. The microbe came naturally equipped to spread in the conditions it found itself. But the press pretty universally blew off that detail. Hey, if it spreads well, it must be Weaponized, right?
Nope. It makes a big difference when considering risks, too. A group large enough and organized enough to successfully weaponize a bug is a very different thing from a natural outbreak, or from a lone evil SOB who works in a lab.
Upshot: Don’t trust the press to get it right even when they’re trying. The knowledge base of the writers might not be up to interpreting the available information.
The Sneaky Microbe problem
Some of the information problems with pandemics are not caused by humans, intentionally or accidentally. They’re caused by the microbes themselves. Microbes mutate. Strains often change as they circulate. (That’s why flu vaccines are less effective some years.) What was discovered and published doesn’t necessarily remain true, because the bugs don’t read the papers. SARS wasn’t supposed to be able to spread through ventilation systems, for example… but it mutated.
How can you get good information during a pandemic?
Keep in mind the common barriers to getting good information, for starters. You can do these things too:
- Get as close to the original source as possible. The closer you get to the raw data, the less chance is has had to be spun and/or misinterpreted. Take a gander at the CDC weekly report that’s available to the public and includes some raw data. Could they be fudging? Yeah, but that’s not where most information has come from, historically.
- Use varied sources. Everybody’s got some bias, but try for less-biased sources and then read from people whose biases are different. You create your best shot of figuring out what’s real.
- Keep in mind that uncertainty is always a thing. Even best available information can be wrong. If the stakes are high, extra caution could be in order.
1) Ali S. Khan, The Next Pandemic: On the front lines against humankind’s greatest dangers. PublicAffairs:2016.
Thank you Spice for excellent information. I’ll take it as the flu report I emailed you about earlier :-). Given the nature of Government to “Not cause Alarm” and Media to spread misinformation it seems we are on our own about pandemics.
So from my point of view maintaining your Immune System, washing your hands before touching your mucus membranes (face etc.) to reduce contact contamination and in general avoiding the obviously sick is our best defense.
Not everybody dies from a pandemic, even the Black Death with total LACK of understanding about germs and general sanitation folks survived. Those that die off first tend to be elderly, babies, people of poor health and generally poor nutrition. The Spanish Flu was an interesting (as in Chinese CURSE) paradox that young and healthy were high on the death toll. However from my readings that was because of the high concentration of young men in the military getting it and being close to each other in tents and barracks thus promoting exposure to the virus’s involved. Cytokine Storm has been suggested as the primary killer of the young and healthy as the body Overreacts to the infection and destroys it’s self. There is some research about Ginseng Teas as useful to keep the cytokine storm at bay but needs to be Preventative as once started…
Well good hydration IS part and parcel of good immune health.
Personally I keep a weather eye out locally, if a LOT of folks I KNOW to be Hard Workers are out “Sick” and or I see a lot of sick folks out shopping etc. then I greatly reduce my outside the home trips AND establish a Wash Up in the Mud Room, dump the outside clothes into the washer and START IT decontamination process.
Be aware of public sickness, reduce exposure and prepare to use decontamination BEFORE you carry the outside bugs through out your home and family is my suggestion.