Prepper Fiction vs. Reality
Many of us have read a substantial amount of apocalyptic fiction and in many cases the stories have motivated us to become preppers, or to step up our prepping plans because the stories seemed so credible. Apocalyptic fiction often provides a fun read, and in some cases, very good ideas about how to prep.
There are key books of fiction that every prepper ought to have read, simply to be “culturally literate” in prepper circles. For instance, can you imagine having a conversation about EMPs without having read “One Second After”? BTW: If you haven’t read “One Second After”, please read it so this post makes sense to you. 😊
Right here on 3BY we have one of the most prolific writers of Post-Apocalyptic fiction, Jerry D. Young. I’ve lost count of the books and short stories of Jerry’s that I have read, but I have gotten many good ideas from Jerry’s stories, and they are fun reads as well. A good story can provide a lesson in a much more enjoyable fashion than non-fiction. I’d prefer a good story to a book on what to put in an Altoid’s tin any day!
However, I find that many preppers read the available fiction and wind up with distorted ideas about future possibilities, and how to prepare for disasters, because they fail to sort lessons from the stories from the plot lines that make an entertaining story. I would like to clear some of that up so you can enjoy the rich body of fiction that is available, without turning into a “Doomsday Prepper” whack job without the television show. 😊
How Long Until Normalcy Returns?
Most prepper fiction involves widespread, long term events, up to the end of the world as we know it (TEOTWAWKI). This makes sense because short term events don’t make interesting settings for good stories. For instance, EMPs and other grid down situations are used for prepper fiction all the time. Many of these are excellent reads and I highly recommend reading EMP stories from a variety of authors.
However, what is the reality around grid down situations? We’ve actually had some interesting grid down scenarios play out. In 2003 we had a blackout in the northeastern US where about a quarter of the country lost power. Don’t remember it? That’s because power was restored in less than 24 hours. The most extreme real grid down experience we have had is Puerto Rico post Hurricane Maria. Puerto Rico has had varying levels of electrical service for months, but the cause was a hurricane, not an EMP. I have yet to hear of Puerto Ricans resorting to cannibalism. 😊 (If you don’t understand that last sentence, you haven’t read “One Second After”.)
Reality
Reality is that the disasters you are likely to experience are shorter term, and less severe, than what you find in prepper fiction. Many of us have experienced events like hurricanes, but none of them has resulted in TEOTWAWKI, . . . yet. As a result, some preppers are overwhelmed by fictional disasters and decide that prepping is beyond them.
Reality is that by prepping for short term disasters you can make a huge difference in your level of preparedness. I think you should prep for the longest period you can, but there is no need to give up just because you can’t afford a bunker. If you have a month long disaster event in your area, would you rather have two weeks of supplies, or no supplies? You are better off preparing for short term disasters than not preparing, even in a long term scenario.
Level of Violence
Most prepper fiction involves some violence, e.g. the protagonist winds up in a gun battle between his group and a criminal gang, or some other group that wants to take their supplies. It is hard to find a work of prepper fiction that doesn’t include some action to turn it into an exciting story.
It makes sense that with a breakdown of communications systems, the level of crime will increase, so the first issue in determining the likelihood of crime or violence post disaster, is what is the level before the disaster? If you live in Chicago, murder capital of the US, that may be a concern. However, if you live in Wyoming, not so much. Crime in the US is centered in a few large urban centers. Avoid those locations.
In recent years, the worst violence connected to a disaster was during Katrina, though most deaths were the result of the botched evacuation. The problems in New Orleans were well publicized and were probably exacerbated by the city’s attempt to confiscate firearms in advance of the Hurricane. That action was subsequently ruled unconstitutional by the federal courts. A new federal law was also passed specifically banning firearm seizures during a disaster.
Fiction
While prepper fiction tends to promote the Oath Keepers in such contexts, they were nowhere to be found during Katrina. However, since gun owners are now hyper-aware of attempts to use disasters as an excuse for gun confiscation, I would expect that gun owners themselves would resist such efforts during future disasters, mostly by hiding their firearms. A few might actively resist the authorities. Criminals would then find that the population was pretty much armed as they are now, pre-disaster, i.e. 400 million firearms in circulation, with a clear understanding that the population needs to defend themselves in the absence of a 911 system.
In short, while crime would go up, so would the level of self-defense as people became aware of the rising crime. Criminal gangs would not expand unchecked, as they do in many novels, but would be thinned out by people defending themselves. Crime has never been a career choice with good life expectancy. The net result would be slight increase in crime and violence. Families will still need to defend themselves, but the level of violence is more likely to look like Katrina than “One Second After”, or any other novel.
Bug Outs
Every Prepper novel seems to involve at least one Bug Out, sometimes several, over the course of the story. Back here in reality, disasters make travel difficult. Covering any distance without a working vehicle becomes extremely difficult, and working vehicles may suffer from other impediments. For instance, during Hurricane Sandy my local electric utility had to deal with 45,000 downed trees that took out power lines.
Most of those trees landed in the middle of the road, often with a mixed bag of power lines and poles. After the Hurricane came through, I was not able to drive more than a couple hundred yards for the first four days. Other areas were affected longer. Simply losing power will take out traffic lights and screw up traffic.
As a practical matter, a bug out either has to happen in advance, or it may be a long time before you are actually able to go to your bug out location (BOL). Bug outs are very much a last resort and may be difficult to do. The idea of loading up the family SUV and heading for the cabin won’t work too well if there are trees down all over the place, and downed trees don’t sound like an exciting item to work into someone’s next novel.
Picture a disaster novel where the cars all work, but the traffic lights are all out. The world descends into a massive traffic jam. ☹ While that may sound very realistic, it doesn’t have much of a story line.
Summary
I recommend that you read prepper fiction, but keep a clear head about what you are prepping for vs. what makes a good plot and an entertaining read. If you aren’t prepared for short term disasters, then start there. You are more likely to experience a short-term disaster than TEOTWAWKI, and if we do experience the apocalypse, your preps will at least give you some slack that will greatly improve your odds of survival.
Expect an increase in crime, but not to the level that prepper fiction would cause you to believe. These are stories and they need some action to be enjoyable reading. You will need to up your preparedness for simple crimes, up to the home invasion level.
Don’t expect to easily bug out, because movement will be hampered by road conditions, stalled cars, disabled traffic lights, etc.
Most importantly, read prepper fiction with the idea of learning some prepper tips, but don’t confuse a good piece of fiction with what is likely to happen.
IMO Forstchen “borrowed” very heavily from an earlier (1959) book, Alas Babylon, when he wrote One Second After. I haven’t read any Jerry D. Young that I remember but I’m not really good remembering authors. I’m going to look him up today. Thanks.
Hi Linda, it may not be fair to Dr. Fortschen to state that he “borrowed heavily from Pat Frank’s book, Alas, Babylon. While both books are compelling stories about the aftermath of a nuclear event, one involves the destruction of a nuclear blast while the other involves an intact infrastructure following an airburst resulting in the release of an EMP. In 1959, the Russians were considered a threat to the US and we nearly got into a nuclear exchange with them during the Cuban Crisis. This was a known threat. Fortschen writes on his experience both as a historian and as someone who has testified before Congress on the potential effects of an EMP release while sitting at his desk at Montreat College in Black Mt., NC. He makes no attempt to disguise the geography or culture of the area which sits near the Blue Ridge Parkway. His book invokes the idea of an unidentified terrorist group releasing the weapon into air via missile and sinking the ship thereafter.
Both books exploit the horrors of the aftermath of nuclear war but I don’t think that William Fortschen borrowed this idea from Pat Frank. JMO!
Charles
As an older (age wise) homesteader, the one thing that irks me about most of the post apoc books is the lack of attention to the time required to grow, harvest, clean and store either animal or vegetable foods – and that it’s usually one older lady who does it all for 6-10 adults and a few kids. Sure, the kids collect the eggs but this is so unrealistic, people who flee to their bugouts without previous practice are going to be overwhelmed.
I’m with you, Jan! Even cooking takes a lot of time and effort without the modern conveniences, much less collection and storage.
Does a bunch of people farming sound like an engaging plot? 🙂
Actually, yes. I would love to read a novel that detailed the drama of the survival garden. Why would that be any less dramatic than a gun fight? Write it from the perspective of the rabbit that escaped being raised for meat in a PAW.
Ah, the Kafka approach, but instead of morphing into a cockroach the protagonist morph’s into a rabbit. Sounds like the basis for a movie. 🙂
Jerry D. Young has some prepper stories that are about short term disasters, such as earthquakes and hurricanes, although he does write about TEOTWAWKI as well. Good stuff!
I’ve read about 60 of Jerry’s books. I enjoy his writing.
Not so sure about that low crime prediction. If most of the neighborhood is home with nothing at all to do besides consume then there will be a hard withdrawal. No TV, phone, AC people will be outside on the street looking for stimulation. When the alcohol runs out and they are bored, hungry, and jonesing walking up and down the block they will look your way. That’s what I think reality will look like.
You could be right and I could be wrong. I just don’t think crime will look like a plot device from a cheap novel. 🙂 Read the novel anyhow because they’ll introduce you to the whatchamacallit that you want to add to your preps. 🙂 I do think crime will go up from current levels, so I have no intention of being in Chicago or Detroit if disaster strikes. 🙂
Hi Paranoid Prepper! You might like to check out a post I’ve got coming out soon based on reports of a friend of mine who worked recovery in the Katrina disaster. I was surprised at what she had to say about the level of lawlessness among citizens of the region.
I will look forward to that post. 🙂
The more sever the SHTF , the more sever the outcome. If nation wide shtf, then expect the UN to come in. That would be even more of a shtf … Then watch for Russia and China to come calling on the American soil, with Mexico coming first to open the door and have the Americans use up their majority of supplies to combat that first line of invaders.
You must have enjoyed “Red Dawn”. I should have included movies along with books in my post.
Good article. It’s important we have level headed preppers who understand the difference between preparation and paranoia. Thanks for sharing
Touche’ LOL