Let’s look at how to not be a statistic in the next great epidemic.
Epidemic disease is near the top of my Most Likely list For Majorly Bad Widespread Events.
Soldiers from Fort Riley, Kansas, ill with Spanish influenza at a hospital ward at Camp Funston via Wikipedia.
Why am I so concerned about epidemic disease?
We (humans) have had them many times before. Who hasn’t heard of the Black Death that killed off a quarter of Europeans in one five year period during the Middle Ages, or the Spanish Flu that killed north of a quarter of a million Americans and perhaps up to three million worldwide in 1917-1920?
Moreover, modern life (especially jet travel, but also changes in animal populations) make it easier for major events to arise and spread. And that’s Without adding in any potential intentionally-caused terrorist event scenarios.
I’m not a doctor, but…
While I’m not a health care provider myself, I do help train them, and health and disease are in my professional wheelhouse. I’m not just passing along ‘Internet wisdom’ I’ve heard somewhere.
The scenarios I find most likely while still being highly dangerous are the ones that involve infectious disease that can be spread through easily shared body fluids (such as cough droplets) where the infected people can pass the disease on before they look or feel very sick themselves; so that’s the scenario addressed here.
The best way not to get sick is to not get exposed.
American Expeditionary Force victims of the flu pandemic at U.S. Army Camp Hospital no. 45 in Aix-les-Bains, France, in 1918 via Wikipedia
Some things to think about:
The more rural the place that you live, the better. Cities with major airport hubs tend to get hit hard and early in outbreaks and spread from there to more rural areas. Those of us in the hinterlands both get more warning and might even get exposed to less virulent versions. (Most epidemic diseases get less dangerous as they spread, as the viruses evolve into versions that don’t kill their hosts as quickly and so spread better.)
Most of us can’t/don’t pick where we live based on that, but an epidemic would be a great time to take the kids to visit Grandma and Grandpa back out on the farm. Big concentrations of people are great places to share germs. How many people do you think have touched the buttons on an elevator at a sports arena?
A few germs can even be spread well through ventilation systems of big buildings. Hospitals are a great place to be when you *really need* a hospital; and a great place to get sicker the rest of the time. Even now, a hospital is the place one is most likely to pick up a seriously antibiotic-resistant bacterium. A hospital flooded with a bunch of people coughing or puking, and overwhelming the available staff, would not be a great improvement.
All about masks
Do masks help, for things that spread like the flu? Yes, but not mostly in the way people usually imagine.
First, masks are most effective when worn by the sick people, not the well, as they keep a lot of the microbe-laden body fluids from being released into the wild. So if *you* are sick and want to protect those around you, Absolutely I’d recommend them.
Second, a standard particulate or surgical mask will not prevent one from inhaling airborne particles of virus. It will reduce it a lot, but some air gets in around the edges of such masks, and the virus itself can get through those filters (although the phlegm particles the viruses are carried with are often stopped).
The greatest value of the masks is really reducing hand to mouth/eyes/nose transmission. Most transfers of cold or flu virus, for example, comes when 1) sick person sneezes or coughs particles out, or transfers them by hand. 2) Particles with microbes land on surface. 3) New victim touches surface, picks up particles. Fortunately, fingers are not susceptible to the flu. 4) New victim handles food or touches mouth/nose/eyes, or even handles something and later, having run out of hands for a task, holds that thing with teeth. Oops, now microbe has a friendly new home. So if there’s an epidemic of this sort, the best bet is if you have to be where sick people are or might have been, yes wear the mask but wash your hands before you take it off.
Wash those hands… A LOT…
While you’re at it, get in the habit of washing your hands. A Lot. Soap and water works best. Alcohol-based sanitizing gels are a heck of a lot better than nothing but not quite as good as soap.
Antibacterial agents in the soap provide little or no extra benefit, unless your job is to market said soap to consumers who like the sound of the word ‘antibacterial’.
Last but by no means least: Keep yourself in general good health. A lot more people are exposed to most diseases than actually get them. Dose of exposure is one factor (so the good sanitation habits still help). Another big one is the state of one’s immune system. Healthy food, good exercise, enough sleep, and finding ways to manage stress pay off in this arena, again.